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Krieg Digistruct Peak Guide (OP 10, No Grog, Norfleet, Harold, Bee, etc. required)
Hello there, I hope you are all doing well today! I am here to present a Krieg guide for taking down Digistruct peak (through OP 10) that requires no Norfleet, Sham, Grog, Bee-Hawk, DPUH, and so on. Important to note that I used this build on the Unofficial Community Patch but the advice, gear, and build translate seamlessly to the vanilla game for Krieg. Gameplay + Commentary for those of you uninterested in reading: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w70qsmcuqik Note: As a quick note, I do understand that this build isn't exactly "groundbreaking" for Krieg and there are multiple videos of people speedrunning the Peak with this build or at least a similar one. The intent isn't to showcase some new original build but rather to explain it. I've seen people run through with a similar build but I have yet to see any commentary or explanation of their gear, skill build, playstyle, etc. so I thought this might be helpful! Section 1: Build Green/Bloodlust Tree:
Blood Filled Guns (5/5): 2.5% Mag size per stack of our bloodlust is really nice. There are very easy ways to stack bloodlust (which I will cover) and a 250% magazine size increase at 100 stacks is substantial. This allows us to fire our guns pretty much endlessly, dramatically increasing the DPS of Krieg.
Blood Twitch (5/5): 1.5% weapon swap speed per stack of bloodlust = 150% weapon swap speed at max. Those of you that have read my guides before know that I am a bit of a sucker for weapon swap speed. It dramatically increases your DPS guys! This means you can instantly swap away from your slag weapon and go back to DPSing. Also, you may need to swap to a Moxxi weapon or a launcher in a tight situation and the speed will save you.
Blood Bath (5/5): This skill is honestly just stupid how strong it is. This is an absolute must-have on any Krieg build. 2.5% weapon damage per stack after we get a kill with a grenade or explosion and also gives a 75% chance of dropping a grenade. 250% weapon damage at max stacks and it is doubled to 500% weapon damage with the COM we will be using (Leg. Reaper). Absolutely insane damage and we can spam grenades rather liberally. Easy for Krieg to activate this skill as well because many of his best weapons are grenade/explosive weapons.
Boiling Blood (5/5): Increases the time before bloodlust starts to decay by 2.5 seconds. Having high bloodlust stacks is a massive increase to our DPS. The longer we have high stacks the better.
Nervous Blood (5/5): Kill skill that gives us 1.5% reload speed per stack. 150% reload speed at max bloodlust is phenomenal. Another massive increase to our DPS. Take it!
Bloodsplosion (1/1): Everybody knows of bloodsplosion and its shenanigans. We aren't really reliant on the bloodsplosion overkill damage chains but there isn't really a good reason to skip it. There will be multiple instances where the nova damage deals significant damage to nearby enemies or flat out kills them. Worth the point!
Blue/Mania Tree:
Feed the Meat (5/5): 50% max health is pretty substantial for a character that relies on face-tanking enemies. The shield delay isn't super important since we will primarily use the Rough Rider. Helpful for scenarios where we use the Easy Mode shield.
Embrace the Pain (5/5): Really nice skill that gives substantial fire rate and shield recharge delay. In this case, we really just want it for the fire rate DPS boost.
Thrill of the Kill (1/5): Our com boosts this skill to 6 but even if it didn't a value point is worth it for this skill. With 1 point (no boost from com) we get 50% of our health back from overkill damage... something Krieg excels at. Dramatic survivability increase, no reason to skip this.
Strip the Flesh (5/5): 15% flat explosive damage and boosted to 30% in FFYL. This is great for Krieg, we will be using explosive weapons plenty. That extra 15% boost is no joke in FFYL and will likely save you more than once.
Redeem the Soul (1/1): Pretty cool co-op skill that allows you to instantly revive teammates. However, the 50% FFYL time increase is what we really care about. It's really significant and basically guarantees you will get up.
Red/Hellborn Tree:
Fuel the Fire (5/5): Kill skill. 35% chance to set yourself from a fire attack is cool and all but really the 200% elemental effect chance is what we are after. Makes it very easy to apply slag, DoTs, and the more DoT and elemental effects we have going the higher likelihood of catching ourselves on fire (which means more damage and survivability).
Numbed Nerves (5/5): 50% damage reduction (+ Rough Rider's 20%) while you are on fire is massive. Fuel the Fire and our gear choices will make it very easy to set ourselves on fire so it is certainly worth the point.
Pain is Power (5/5): Flat 25% Weapon and Melee damage buff (except snipers, doesn't matter though) that gets doubled when we are on fire. It does lower our crit damage by 25% but that really doesn't matter. We don't need crits anyway, we blow stuff up. Huge DPS increase and is absolutely worth it.
Elemental Elation (5/5): When we are dealing elemental status effects to enemies (fuel the fire makes this easy), we gain stacks (up to 20) that increase our fire rate by 3% and mag size by 5%. It is very easy to apply elemental effects and we will often be at max stacks with this skill. Dramatically increases our DPS.
Delusional Damage (1/1): All elemental status effects can catch us on fire with this skill and the chance is determined by our Fuel the Fire skill (and Burn, Baby, Burn). This is fantastic! We don't have to rely on fire weapons (which do not work properly in the peak) to get the awesome benefits from our hellborn tree.
Fire Fiend (5/5): 50% Weapon accuracy and 35% reload speed when we are on fire. Another great boost to our DPS and that accuracy actually helps more than you would think. You can level Flame Flare instead of this skill if you prefer (or whatever) but I don't have any issues staying on fire. Therefore, Flame Flare is a bit redundant.
Elemental Empathy (5/5): Burn status effects heal you for 25% of the damage dealt. Honestly, we won't be using a ton of fire weapons but the capstone of this tree naturally produces fire DoTs for us. Raving Retribution plus this skill gives you some nice sustain. Can skip if you feel that the survivability doesn't help.
Raving Retribution (1/1): When Krieg is on fire and damaged homing fireballs will seek out the enemies and explode on them. It deals pretty solid damage and gives us nice sustain with Elemental Empathy.
Weapon 1 (slag): Slagga is one of the premier slagging options on any character. Krieg is no exception here! Florentine is not too bad on Krieg either because of his very high elemental chances but I prefer the Slagga. Whatever works best for you though.
Weapon 2 (DPS): We have multiple options here but the highest DPS option is easily the Peak Opener. If you don't want to farm for one, the alternatives I would consider are as follows: Kerblaster, Ogre, DPUH, Swordsplosion/Unicornsplosion, Carnage, Hail, Kitten, and many more of course. Every single weapon here can proc blood bath very consistently (except the Kitten) and we really need a weapon that can do that. Blood Bath is the bread and butter of this build and having a weapon like the Peak Opener, that can not only proc blood bath but it also takes significant advantage of the skill. You can pretty much run through the entire peak with this thing in your hand.
Weapon 3 (SurveyoLoader Weapon): I pretty much just leave the conference call in my inventory the entire time in this slot. It can deal with loaders, shreds Saturn, helps with Surveyors, and is just a generally strong weapon. You could roll a corrosive Pimpernel (still good despite Pain is Power), Butcher, or Interfacer here as well. This slot just gives us some extra versatility and high DPS for loaders and surveyors.
Weapon 4 (Utility/FFYL): This is the slot that you could tinker with the most. I typically hold onto the Hive, Flakker, Badaboom, or any other strong launcher for this slot. Launchers, in general, are amazing with Strip the Flesh and all the reload speed, mag size, fire rate, etc. that Krieg receives. I like the Hive because it can proc all our elemental skills, deal significant damage, and is also amazing for Surveyors. Pop a shot or two into the air and it will do the rest. The Flakker can be weapon swapped rapidly back and forth while firing (hard to explain but demonstrated on Dukino's mom and OMGWTH) to deal massive DPS. I use it to deal with Dukino's mom and the Binary Boss. Not necessary but very powerful and pretty funny.
Shield: Rough Rider and the Easy Mode. We will pretty much always stick with the RR because of Krieg's benefits of not having a shield plus the awesome tankiness it gives us. Krieg can stack a ton of health and DR with this shield active. The Easy Mode is not at all necessary but helps speed up kills of certain mini-bosses. I really only use it for Scorch and the Queens. You'll notice I used it on Saturn but it did nothing, RR would have been better.
Class Mod: Legendary Reaper. Extra kill skill duration and a +5 to Blood Bath. That is literally all we care about. Gives us more uptime and more damage from Blood Bath. It is insane how much this COM will boost your DPS. This is the only piece of gear that I would say is absolutely required.
Grenade: For this build, we will be using the Pandemic. This is debatably the best bloodlust stacking grenade in the game and that's really all we need. It is also deals a ton of DoT which procs our hellborn skill tree. Perfect! Alternatively, the Storm Front/Electric Chair, a low-level Crossfire/Bouncing Bonny, the Leech, are all good stacking options as well. Whatever you feel is best suited to your playstyle.
Relic: Blood of the Ancients. Specifically, we want the one that boosts Assualt Rifle and Shotgun max ammo. The Peak Opener and Conference call absolutely churn through ammo so it is a needed addition. If you can't get one that has both prioritize ones that give you AR ammo because we will be using that the most. The max health from the relic is of course welcome as well.
Section 3: General Tips
Generally, I advise caution and calculated approaches to the Peak. You still want to think about how you will approach certain mini-bosses but you can't really be cautious with Krieg. Embrace the chaos and get in the fray. As soon as you have Blood Bath going you're going to churn through everything. Activate it with your weapon of choice and then go to town. This is super important for mini-bosses!! For example, If you get the Dukino's Mom spawn where the midgets spawn with her, use this to your advantage. Kill the midgets with the peak opener to proc BB and then switch to the Flakker, Harold, Conference Call, whatever. The same thing applies to Saturn! Kill his turrets with grenade/explosive damage and then pull out the Conference Call, Butcher, Interfacer, etc. This will seriously make the run a lot easier. Another tip, you can proc BB on the Binary Boss by blowing up his head first. Prioritize this and then let BB do the work.
Prioritize corrosive weapons (when not using explosive). For some reason, in the Peak flesh enemies do not actually take bonus damage from fire. They are considered "non-flesh" and take neutral damage. This means that fire is not totally useless but no longer retains a distinct advantage to flesh enemies. However, corrosive is not resisted by anything (other than some weird interactions with spider ants, use shock for them) and still deals bonus damage to loaders. Corrosive DoT also tends to do more and stick longer on enemies. Making it the more versatile choice for the peak. Link to the thread explaining this more in-depth: https://forums.gearboxsoftware.com/t/digistruct-peak-enemy-typing-issue-and-why-your-fire-guns-suck-there/1119745
Thanks for checking the post out! Please let me know if you have any questions. I will link the UCP changelog below if anyone is interested in the differences.
ResultsFileName = 0×0 empty char array Why? Where are my results?
Hello, I am not getting any errors and I do not understand why I am not getting any output. I am trying to batch process a large number of ecg signals. Below is my code and the two relevant functions. Any help greatly appreciated. I am very new.
d = importSections("Dx_sections.csv"); % set the number of recordings n = height(d); % settings HRVparams = InitializeHRVparams('test_physionet') for ii = 1:n % Import waveform (ECG) [record, signals] = read_edf(strcat(d.PID(ii), '/baseline.edf')); myecg = record.ECG; Ann = []; [HRVout, ResultsFileName] = Main_HRV_Analysis(myecg,'','ECGWaveform',HRVparams) end function [HRVout, ResultsFileName ] = Main_HRV_Analysis(InputSig,t,InputFormat,HRVparams,subID,ann,sqi,varargin) % ====== HRV Toolbox for PhysioNet Cardiovascular Signal Toolbox ========= % % Main_HRV_Analysis(InputSig,t,InputFormat,HRVparams,subID,ann,sqi,varargin) % OVERVIEW: % Main "Validated Open-Source Integrated Matlab" VOSIM Toolbox script % Configured to accept RR intervals as well as raw data as input file % % INPUT: % InputSig - Vector containing RR intervals data (in seconds) % or ECG/PPG waveform % t - Time indices of the rr interval data (seconds) or % leave empty for ECG/PPG input % InputFormat - String that specifiy if the input vector is: % 'RRIntervals' for RR interval data % 'ECGWaveform' for ECG waveform % 'PPGWaveform' for PPG signal % HRVparams - struct of settings for hrv_toolbox analysis that can % be obtained using InitializeHRVparams.m function % HRVparams = InitializeHRVparams(); % % % OPTIONAL INPUTS: % subID - (optional) string to identify current subject % ann - (optional) annotations of the RR data at each point % indicating the type of the beat % sqi - (optional) Signal Quality Index; Requires a % matrix with at least two columns. Column 1 % should be timestamps of each sqi measure, and % Column 2 should be SQI on a scale from 0 to 1. % Use InputSig, Type pairs for additional signals such as ABP % or PPG signal. The input signal must be a vector containing % signal waveform and the Type: 'ABP' and\or 'PPG'. % % % OUTPUS: % results - HRV time and frequency domain metrics as well % as AC and DC, SDANN and SDNNi % ResultsFileName - Name of the file containing the results % % NOTE: before running this script review and modifiy the parameters % in "initialize_HRVparams.m" file accordingly with the specific % of the new project (see the readme.txt file for further details) % % EXAMPLES % - rr interval input % Main_HRV_Analysis(RR,t,'RRIntervals',HRVparams) % - ECG wavefrom input % Main_HRV_Analysis(ECGsig,t,'ECGWavefrom',HRVparams,'101') % - ECG waveform and also ABP and PPG waveforms % Main_HRV_Analysis(ECGsig,t,'ECGWaveform',HRVparams,[],[],[], abpSig, % 'ABP', ppgSig, 'PPG') % % DEPENDENCIES & LIBRARIES: % HRV Toolbox for PhysioNet Cardiovascular Signal Toolbox % https://github.com/cliffordlab/PhysioNet-Cardiovascular-Signal-Toolbox % % REFERENCE: % Vest et al. "An Open Source Benchmarked HRV Toolbox for Cardiovascular % Waveform and Interval Analysis" Physiological Measurement (In Press), 2018. % % REPO: % https://github.com/cliffordlab/PhysioNet-Cardiovascular-Signal-Toolbox % ORIGINAL SOURCE AND AUTHORS: % This script written by Giulia Da Poian % Dependent scripts written by various authors % (see functions for details) % COPYRIGHT (C) 2018 % LICENSE: % This software is offered freely and without warranty under % the GNU (v3 or later) public license. See license file for % more information %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% if nargin < 4 error('Wrong number of input arguments') end if nargin < 5 subID = '0000'; end if nargin < 6 ann = []; end if nargin < 7 sqi = []; end if length(varargin) == 1 || length(varargin) == 3 error('Incomplete Signal-Type pair') elseif length(varargin) == 2 extraSigType = varargin(2); extraSig = varargin{1}; elseif length(varargin) == 4 extraSigType = [varargin(2) varargin(4)]; extraSig = [varargin{1} varargin{3}]; end if isa(subID,'cell'); subID = string(subID); end % Control on signal length if (strcmp(InputFormat, 'ECGWaveform') && length(InputSig)/HRVparams.Fs< HRVparams.windowlength) ... || (strcmp(InputFormat, 'PPGWaveform') && length(InputSig)/HRVparams.Fs 300 s VLF = [0.0033 .04]; % Requires at least 300 s window LF = [.04 .15]; % Requires at least 25 s window HF = [0.15 0.4]; % Requires at least 7 s window HRVparams.freq.limits = [ULF; VLF; LF; HF]; HRVparams.freq.zero_mean = 1; % Default: 1, Option for subtracting the mean from the input data HRVparams.freq.method = 'lomb'; % Default: 'lomb' % Options: 'lomb', 'burg', 'fft', 'welch' HRVparams.freq.plot_on = 0; % The following settings are for debugging spectral analysis methods HRVparams.freq.debug_sine = 0; % Default: 0, Adds sine wave to tachogram for debugging HRVparams.freq.debug_freq = 0.15; % Default: 0.15 HRVparams.freq.debug_weight = .03; % Default: 0.03 % Lomb: HRVparams.freq.normalize_lomb = 0; % Default: 0 % 1 = Normalizes Lomb Periodogram, % 0 = Doesn't normalize % Burg: (not recommended) HRVparams.freq.burg_poles = 15; % Default: 15, Number of coefficients % for spectral estimation using the Burg % method (not recommended) % The following settings are only used when the user specifies spectral % estimation methods that use resampling : 'welch','fft', 'burg' HRVparams.freq.resampling_freq = 7; % Default: 7, Hz HRVparams.freq.resample_interp_method = 'cub'; % Default: 'cub' % 'cub' = cublic spline method % 'lin' = linear spline method HRVparams.freq.resampled_burg_poles = 100; % Default: 100 %% 11. SDANN and SDNNI Analysis Settings HRVparams.sd.on = 1; % Default: 1, SD analysis 1=On or 0=Off HRVparams.sd.segmentlength = 300; % Default: 300, windows length in seconds %% 12. PRSA Analysis Settings HRVparams.prsa.on = 1; % Default: 1, PRSA Analysis 1=On or 0=Off HRVparams.prsa.win_length = 30; % Default: 30, The length of the PRSA signal % before and after the anchor points % (the resulting PRSA has length 2*L) HRVparams.prsa.thresh_per = 20; % Default: 20%, Percent difference that one beat can % differ from the next in the prsa code HRVparams.prsa.plot_results = 0; % Default: 0 HRVparams.prsa.scale = 2; % Default: 2, scale parameter for wavelet analysis (to compute AC and DC) %% 13. Peak Detection Settings % The following settings are for jqrs.m HRVparams.PeakDetect.REF_PERIOD = 0.250; % Default: 0.25 (should be 0.15 for FECG), refractory period in sec between two R-peaks HRVparams.PeakDetect.THRES = .6; % Default: 0.6, Energy threshold of the detector HRVparams.PeakDetect.fid_vec = []; % Default: [], If some subsegments should not be used for finding the optimal % threshold of the P&T then input the indices of the corresponding points here HRVparams.PeakDetect.SIGN_FORCE = []; % Default: [], Force sign of peaks (positive value/negative value) HRVparams.PeakDetect.debug = 0; % Default: 0 HRVparams.PeakDetect.ecgType = 'MECG'; % Default : MECG, options (adult MECG) or featl ECG (fECG) HRVparams.PeakDetect.windows = 15; % Befautl: 15,(in seconds) size of the window onto which to perform QRS detection %% 14. Entropy Settings % Multiscale Entropy HRVparams.MSE.on = 1; % Default: 1, MSE Analysis 1=On or 0=Off HRVparams.MSE.windowlength = []; % Default: [], windows size in seconds, default perform MSE on the entire signal HRVparams.MSE.increment = []; % Default: [], window increment HRVparams.MSE.RadiusOfSimilarity = 0.15; % Default: 0.15, Radius of similarity (% of std) HRVparams.MSE.patternLength = 2; % Default: 2, pattern length HRVparams.MSE.maxCoarseGrainings = 20; % Default: 20, Maximum number of coarse-grainings % SampEn an ApEn HRVparams.Entropy.on = 1; % Default: 1, MSE Analysis 1=On or 0=Off HRVparams.Entropy.RadiusOfSimilarity = 0.15; % Default: 0.15, Radius of similarity (% of std) HRVparams.Entropy.patternLength = 2; % Default: 2, pattern length %% 15. DFA Settings HRVparams.DFA.on = 1; % Default: 1, DFA Analysis 1=On or 0=Off HRVparams.DFA.windowlength = []; % Default [], windows size in seconds, default perform DFA on the entair signal HRVparams.DFA.increment = []; % Default: [], window increment HRVparams.DFA.minBoxSize = 4 ; % Default: 4, Smallest box width HRVparams.DFA.maxBoxSize = []; % Largest box width (default in DFA code: signal length/4) HRVparams.DFA.midBoxSize = 16; % Medium time scale box width (default in DFA code: 16) %% 16. Poincaré plot HRVparams.poincare.on = 1; % Default: 1, Poincare Analysis 1=On or 0=Off %% 17. Heart Rate Turbulence (HRT) - Settings HRVparams.HRT.on = 1; % Default: 1, HRT Analysis 1=On or 0=Off HRVparams.HRT.BeatsBefore = 2; % Default: 2, # of beats before PVC HRVparams.HRT.BeatsAfter = 16; % Default: 16, # of beats after PVC and CP HRVparams.HRT.GraphOn = 0; % Default: 0, do not plot HRVparams.HRT.windowlength = 24; % Default 24h, windows size in hours HRVparams.HRT.increment = 24; % Default 24h, sliding window increment in hours HRVparams.HRT.filterMethod = 'mean5before'; % Default mean5before, HRT filtering option %% 18. Output Settings HRVparams.gen_figs = 0; % Generate figures HRVparams.save_figs = 0; % Save generated figures if HRVparams.save_figs == 1 HRVparams.gen_figs = 1; end % Format settings for HRV Outputs HRVparams.output.format = 'csv'; % 'csv' - creates csv file for output % 'mat' - creates .mat file for output HRVparams.output.separate = 0; % Default : 1 = separate files for each subject % 0 = all results in one file HRVparams.output.num_win = []; % Specify number of lowest hr windows returned % leave blank if all windows should be returned % Format settings for annotations generated HRVparams.output.ann_format = 'binary'; % 'binary' = binary annotation file generated % 'csv' = ASCII CSV file generated %% 19. Filename to Save Data HRVparams.time = datestr(now, 'yyyymmdd'); % Setup time for filename of output HRVparams.filename = [HRVparams.time '_' project_name]; %% Export Parameter as Latex Table % Note that if you change the order of the parameters or add parameters % this might not work ExportHRVparams(HRVparams); end
they did say dlc 5 is a mode, we dont rly know if or how much new story there will be but saying that if tis a new mode the new mode should do a few things to make ppl replay the base game i kinda doubt its mayhem 3.0+ where you add another mode ontop of it like True VH mode with elemental bonis dlc 5 could be adding -raidbosses: hermi, vermi, stackable enemies ( perhaps only aviavable in ultimate ( in a fixed form so they can stack) -pearls maybe seraphs dropping on raidboss enemies like eista -ultimate vaulthunter -new COMs for everything -fat enemies ( spawning fat enemies more frequently and making them drop more rewarding things like mayhem gear and pearls) / random new types of enemies in hordes so dlc 5 is 15 bucks, just new guns, enemy types new rarity and more content to revisit base game for, making mob groups more interesting, and existing things drop new gear like eista this would be a thing they did before in other bl games to some degree adding things like digistruct peak and pearls fat enemies dropping stuff and things being exclusive to ultimate VH mode patch that comes alongside the new skilltree should also do -fix alot of COMs and clean up bandaids to make everything better and more strategies more viable with existing gear -make mayhem mods choosable from all difficulties no matter what, and make them deactivatable -buff overall some guns such as shreddifier or faisor, fix the last shields who dont scale still -make all past events aviavable permanently, or at least the areas you can enter, and have their respective acitavtion requirement like skull spawns, or beacons spawn there as area mods -mission reward vendor for all dlcs, bring crew mission rewards to mission reward vendor this makes base game strategies work again for alot of VHs, makes old COMs that cant remotly keep up work and enable way more build diversity speak stuff such as better sustain, for moze and zane without seeing dead or sapper, more clone options with the binary one, perhaps make it so zanes drone can actuvate the bombardment augment more then once per ASA on that one classmodit with the 5% proc chance, and perhaps some other benefits that are not there in the skilltrees or COMs so far. with past event content also aviavable you have alot more things you can run since halloween event and the cartel event are more or less proving grounds with event things. future content could still be dlc proving grounds, circles or just more plain raidbosses that work with the ultimate VH mode for seraph gear or pearl gear. instead of more short events
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 29th, 2020
Good Saturday afternoon to all of you here on StockMarket. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead. Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 29th, 2020.
Fragile economic recovery faces first big test with June jobs report in the week ahead - (Source)
The second half of 2020 is nearly here, and now it’s up to the economy to prove that the stock market was right about a sharp comeback in growth. The first big test will be the June jobs report, out on Thursday instead of its usual Friday release due to the July 4 holiday. According to Refinitiv, economists expect 3 million jobs were created, after May’s surprise gain of 2.5 million payrolls beat forecasts by a whopping 10 million jobs. “If it’s stronger, it will suggest that the improvement is quicker, and that’s kind of what we saw in May with better retail sales, confidence was coming back a little and auto sales were better,” said Kevin Cummins, chief U.S. economist at NatWest Markets. The second quarter winds down in the week ahead as investors are hopeful about the recovery but warily eyeing rising cases of Covid-19 in a number of states. Stocks were lower for the week, as markets reacted to rising cases in Texas, Florida and other states. Investors worry about the threat to the economic rebound as those states move to curb some activities. The S&P 500 is up more than 16% so far for the second quarter, and it is down nearly 7% for the year. Friday’s losses wiped out the last of the index’s June gains. “I think the stock market is looking beyond the valley. It is expecting a V-shaped economic recovery and a solid 2021 earnings picture,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA. He expects large-cap company earnings to be up 30% next year, and small-cap profits to bounce back by 140%. “I think the second half needs to be a ‘show me’ period, proving that our optimism was justified, and we’ll need to see continued improvement in the economic data, and I think we need to see upward revisions to earnings estimates,” Stovall said. Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, said she expects the recovery will not be as smooth as some expect, particularly considering the resurgence of virus outbreaks in sunbelt states and California. “Now as I watch what’s happening I think it’s more likely to be rolling Ws,” rather than a V, she said. “It’s not just predicated on a second wave. I’m not sure we ever exited the first wave.” Even without actual state shutdowns, the virus could slow economic activity. “That doesn’t mean businesses won’t shut themselves down, or consumers won’t back down more,” she said.
Election ahead
In the second half of the year, the market should turn its attention to the election, but Sonders does not expect much reaction to it until after Labor Day. RealClearPolitics average of polls shows Democrat Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by 10 percentage points, and the odds of a Democratic sweep have been rising. Biden has said he would raise corporate taxes, and some strategists say a sweep would be bad for business, due to increased regulation and higher taxes. Trump is expected to continue using tariffs, which unsettles the market, though both candidates are expected to take a tough stance on China. “If it looks like the Senate stays Republican than there’s less to worry about in terms of policy changes,” Sonders said. “I don’t think it’s ever as binary as some people think.” Stovall said a quick study shows that in the four presidential election years back to 1960, where the first quarter was negative, and the second quarter positive, stocks made gains in the second half. Those were 1960 when John Kennedy took office, 1968, when Richard Nixon won; 1980 when Ronald Reagan’s was elected to his first term; and 1992, the first win by Bill Clinton. Coincidentally, in all of those years, the opposing party gained control of the White House.
Stimulus
The stocks market’s strong second-quarter showing came after the Fed and Congress moved quickly to inject the economy with trillions in stimulus. That unlocked credit markets and triggered a stampede by companies to restructure or issue debt. About $2 trillion in fiscal spending was aimed at consumers and businesses, who were in sudden need of cash after the abrupt shutdown of the economy. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin both testify before the House Financial Services Committee Tuesday on the response to the virus. That will be important as markets look ahead to another fiscal package from Congress this summer, which is expected to provide aid to states and local governments; extend some enhanced benefits for unemployment, and provide more support for businesses. “So much of it is still so fluid. There are a bunch of fiscal items that are rolling off. There’s talk about another fiscal stimulus payment like they did last time with a $1,200 check,” said Cummins. Strategists expect Congress to bicker about the size and content of the stimulus package but ultimately come to an agreement before enhanced unemployment benefits run out at the end of July. Cummins said state budgets begin a new year July 1, and states with a critical need for funds may have to start letting workers go, as they cut expenses. The Trump administration has indicated the jobs report Thursday could help shape the fiscal package, depending on what it shows. The federal supplement to state unemployment benefits has been $600 a week, but there is opposition to extending that, and strategists expect it to be at least cut in half. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 12.2% from 13.3% in May. Cummins said he had expected 7.2 million jobs, well above the consensus, and an unemployment rate of 11.8%. As of last week, nearly 20 million people were collecting state unemployment benefits, and millions more were collecting under a federal pandemic aid program. “The magnitude here and whether it’s 3 million or 7 million is kind of hard to handicap to begin with,” Cummins said. Economists have preferred to look at unemployment claims as a better real time read of employment, but they now say those numbers could be impacted by slow reporting or double filing. “There’s no clarity on how you define the unemployed in the Covid 19 environment,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank. “If there’s 30 million people receiving insurance, unemployment should be above 20%.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
The economy is moving in the right direction, as many economic data points are coming in substantially better than what the economists expected. From May job gains coming in more than 10 million higher than expected and retail sales soaring a record 18%, how quickly the economy is bouncing back has surprised nearly everyone. “As good as the recent economic data has been, we want to make it clear, it could still take years for the economy to fully come back,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Think of it like building a house. You get all the big stuff done early, then some of the small things take so much longer to finish; I’m looking at you crown molding.” Here’s the hard truth; it might take years for all of the jobs that were lost to fully recover. In fact, during the 10 recessions since 1950, it took an average of 30 months for lost jobs to finally come back. As the LPL Chart of the Day shows, recoveries have taken much longer lately. In fact, it took four years for the jobs lost during the tech bubble recession of the early 2000s to come back and more than six years for all the jobs lost to come back after the Great Recession. Given many more jobs were lost during this recession, it could takes many years before all of them indeed come back.
The economy is going the right direction, and if there is no major second wave outbreak it could surprise to the upside. Importantly, this economic recovery will still be a long and bumpy road.
Nasdaq - Russell Spread Pulling the Rubber Band Tight
The Nasdaq has been outperforming every other US-based equity index over the last year, and nowhere has the disparity been wider than with small caps. The chart below compares the performance of the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 over the last 12 months. While the performance disparity is wide now, through last summer, the two indices were tracking each other nearly step for step. Then last fall, the Nasdaq started to steadily pull ahead before really separating itself in the bounce off the March lows. Just to illustrate how wide the gap between the two indices has become, over the last six months, the Nasdaq is up 11.9% compared to a decline of 15.8% for the Russell 2000. That's wide!
In order to put the recent performance disparity between the two indices into perspective, the chart below shows the rolling six-month performance spread between the two indices going back to 1980. With a current spread of 27.7 percentage points, the gap between the two indices hasn't been this wide since the days of the dot-com boom. Back in February 2000, the spread between the two indices widened out to more than 50 percentage points. Not only was that period extreme, but ten months before that extreme reading, the spread also widened out to more than 51 percentage points. The current spread is wide, but with two separate periods in 1999 and 2000 where the performance gap between the two indices was nearly double the current level, that was a period where the Nasdaq REALLY outperformed small caps.
To illustrate the magnitude of the Nasdaq's outperformance over the Russell 2000 from late 1998 through early 2000, the chart below shows the performance of the two indices beginning in October 1998. From that point right on through March of 2000 when the Nasdaq peaked, the Nasdaq rallied more than 200% compared to the Russell 2000 which was up a relatively meager 64%. In any other environment, a 64% gain in less than a year and a half would be excellent, but when it was under the shadow of the surging Nasdaq, it seemed like a pittance.
The US equity market made its most recent peak on June 8th. From the March 23rd low through June 8th, the average stock in the large-cap Russell 1,000 was up more than 65%! Since June 8th, the average stock in the index is down more than 11%. Below we have broken the index into deciles (10 groups of 100 stocks each) based on simple share price as of June 8th. Decile 1 (marked "Highest" in the chart) contains the 10% of stocks with the highest share prices. Decile 10 (marked "Lowest" in the chart) contains the 10% of stocks with the lowest share prices. As shown, the highest priced decile of stocks are down an average of just 4.8% since June 8th, while the lowest priced decile of stocks are down an average of 21.5%. It's pretty remarkable how performance gets weaker and weaker the lower the share price gets.
It's hard to believe that sentiment can change so fast in the market that one day investors and traders are bidding up stocks to record highs, but then the next day sell them so much that it takes the market down over 2%. That's exactly what happened not only in the last two days but also two weeks ago. While the 5% pullback from a record high back on June 10th took the Nasdaq back below its February high, this time around, the Nasdaq has been able to hold above those February highs.
In the entire history of the Nasdaq, there have only been 12 periods prior to this week where the Nasdaq closed at an all-time high on one day but dropped more than 2% the next day. Those occurrences are highlighted in the table below along with the index's performance over the following week, month, three months, six months, and one year. We have also highlighted each occurrence that followed a prior one by less than three months in gray. What immediately stands out in the table is how much gray shading there is. In other words, these types of events tend to happen in bunches, and if you count the original occurrence in each of the bunches, the only two occurrences that didn't come within three months of another occurrence (either before or after) were July 1986 and May 2017. In terms of market performance following prior occurrences, the Nasdaq's average and median returns were generally below average, but there is a pretty big caveat. While the average one-year performance was a gain of 1.0% and a decline of 23.6% on a median basis, the six occurrences that came between December 1999 and March 2000 all essentially cover the same period (which was very bad) and skew the results. Likewise, the three occurrences in the two-month stretch from late November 1998 through January 1999 where the Nasdaq saw strong gains also involves a degree of double-counting. As a result of these performances at either end of the extreme, it's hard to draw any trends from the prior occurrences except to say that they are typically followed by big moves in either direction. The only time the Nasdaq wasn't either 20% higher or lower one year later was in 1986.
In the mid-1980s the market began to evolve into a tech-driven market and the market’s focus in early summer shifted to the outlook for second quarter earnings of technology companies. Over the last three trading days of June and the first nine trading days in July, NASDAQ typically enjoys a rally. This 12-day run has been up 27 of the past 35 years with an average historical gain of 2.5%. This year the rally may have begun a day early, today and could last until on or around July 14. After the bursting of the tech bubble in 2000, NASDAQ’s mid-year rally had a spotty track record from 2002 until 2009 with three appearances and five no-shows in those years. However, it has been quite solid over the last ten years, up nine times with a single mild 0.1% loss in 2015. Last year, NASDAQ advanced a solid 4.6% during the 12-day span.
Tech Historically Leads Market Higher Until Q3 of Election Years
As of yesterday’s close DJIA was down 8.8% year-to-date. S&P 500 was down 3.5% and NASDAQ was up 12.1%. Compared to the typical election year, DJIA and S&P 500 are below historical average performance while NASDAQ is above average. However this year has not been a typical election year. Due to the covid-19, the market suffered the damage of the shortest bear market on record and a new bull market all before the first half of the year has come to an end. In the surrounding Seasonal Patten Charts of DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ, we compare 2020 (as of yesterday’s close) to All Years and Election Years. This year’s performance has been plotted on the right vertical axis in each chart. This year certainly has been unlike any other however some notable observations can be made. For DJIA and S&P 500, January, February and approximately half of March have historically been weak, on average, in election years. This year the bear market ended on March 23. Following those past weak starts, DJIA and S&P 500 historically enjoyed strength lasting into September before experiencing any significant pullback followed by a nice yearend rally. NASDAQ’s election year pattern differs somewhat with six fewer years of data, but it does hint to a possible late Q3 peak.
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
Monday 6.29.20 Before Market Open:
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.
Friday 7.3.20 Before Market Open:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.
Friday 7.3.20 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.
Micron Technology, Inc. $48.49
Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Monday, June 29, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.71 per share on revenue of $5.27 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.70 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 71% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.40 to $0.70 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 29.00% with revenue increasing by 10.07%. Short interest has increased by 7.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 8.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 0.9% below its 200 day moving average of $48.94. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 11, 2020 there was some notable buying of 46,037 contracts of the $60.00 call expiring on Friday, July 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.4% move in recent quarters.
General Mills, Inc. (GIS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, July 1, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.04 per share on revenue of $4.89 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.10 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 69% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 25.30% with revenue increasing by 17.50%. Short interest has decreased by 9.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.8% above its 200 day moving average of $54.91. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, June 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 8,573 contracts of the $60.00 call expiring on Friday, July 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.0% move in recent quarters.
FedEx Corp. (FDX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, June 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.42 per share on revenue of $16.31 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.65 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 61% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 71.66% with revenue decreasing by 8.41%. Short interest has increased by 10.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 43.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.6% below its 200 day moving average of $140.75. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 25, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,768 contracts of the $145.00 call expiring on Thursday, July 2, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.7% move in recent quarters.
Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Tuesday, June 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.66 per share on revenue of $3.24 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.69 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 66% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 83.33% with revenue increasing by 23.99%. Short interest has decreased by 38.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 6.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.4% above its 200 day moving average of $30.68. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 11, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,239 contracts of the $29.00 put expiring on Thursday, July 2, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.8% move in recent quarters.
Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Wednesday, July 1, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.91 per share on revenue of $1.97 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.12 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 53% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 13.57% with revenue decreasing by 13.69%. Short interest has increased by 20.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 25.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.2% below its 200 day moving average of $178.34. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, June 9, 2020 there was some notable buying of 888 contracts of the $195.00 call expiring on Friday, October 16, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 3.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.7% move in recent quarters.
Capri Holdings Limited (CPRI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Wednesday, July 1, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.32 per share on revenue of $1.18 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.34 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 39% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.68 to $0.73 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 49.21% with revenue decreasing by 12.20%. Short interest has increased by 35.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 56.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 44.0% below its 200 day moving average of $25.67. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 4, 2020 there was some notable buying of 11,042 contracts of the $17.50 put expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 10.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.7% move in recent quarters.
X Financial (XYF) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:00 PM ET on Tuesday, June 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.09 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 25% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 55.00% with revenue increasing by 763.52%. Short interest has increased by 1.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 1.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 37.7% below its 200 day moving average of $1.47. Overall earnings estimates have been unchanged since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 4.9% move on earnings in recent quarters.
Acuity Brands, Inc. (AYI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:40 AM ET on Tuesday, June 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.14 per share on revenue of $809.25 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.09 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 42% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 51.90% with revenue decreasing by 14.60%. Short interest has increased by 48.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 23.4% below its 200 day moving average of $110.25. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 9.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.2% move in recent quarters.
Methode Electronics, Inc. (MEI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, June 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.77 per share on revenue of $211.39 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 45% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 24.19% with revenue decreasing by 20.53%. Short interest has increased by 6.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 1.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.0% below its 200 day moving average of $32.97. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 18.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.1% move in recent quarters.
UniFirst Corporation (UNF) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Wednesday, July 1, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.17 per share on revenue of $378.28 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.25 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 44% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 52.44% with revenue decreasing by 16.63%. Short interest has decreased by 2.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 14.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 8.4% below its 200 day moving average of $186.14. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 7.0% move on earnings in recent quarters.
Presidential Suite Weekly Update #2 - Understanding the Roles of Yuri, Natsuki, and Sayori - Discord Sever Set Up
A wonderful week to you all! I have quite a lot to tell you guys about!
I have reached 51,000 words (14,000 words written since last week)
I have reached 239 pages (62 pages written since last week)
The game has reached an estimated play time of 2 hours, 39 minutes, and 20 seconds (41 minutes and 20 seconds written since last week) (It took me 30 minutes to read 45 pages of my script, so I simply divide the number of pages by 1.5 (45/30) to get the estimated length of the game in minutes)
I've set up a Discord server for my game! I'll be honest, I have no idea how Discord works and it's all quite terrifying, but here's the link! https://discord.gg/q8KXuf
I have a working title for my mod! Doki Doki Literature Club: Presidential Suite. Get it? Because it's about Monika? And she's the president? It's alright if you don't get it, it's a pretty advanced joke. (Also, the name subtly implies that the mod is of high quality, which is always nice).
This is, without a doubt, the most work I've ever gotten done in a week. I think it's all thanks to the wonderful feedback and encouraging words I received on last week's post. I'm certain that working on the mod wouldn't be nearly as fun if I didn't know how many wonderful people could end up playing it. Also, it's very likely that the mod will take a lot longer to get through than my estimate above. This is due to several factors.
I was timing myself reading my own writing. Naturally I had an easier time reading it than somebody who's experiencing it for the first time.
I didn't have to wait for the text to appear in the text box.
I didn't have to wait for transitions.
I was forcing myself to constantly read without pausing.
I'm a decently fast reader.
So if we round up and assume that it would take somebody 3 hours to get through what I've written, and if we assume that it takes that long on average for each of the four acts, that's 12 hours of mod! And I'm not even done with the first act yet! God knows how long this mod would take if you were reading the text out loud. Enough dick mod length measuring, let's get into this week's topic! Understanding the Roles of Yuri, Natsuki, and Sayori Have you ever heard of the five man band trope? The idea behind it is that most fictional teams involve the following staples:
The leader leads the team and is responsible for keeping everyone on track and organized. They are very often the protagonist or “hero” of the story.
The lancer highlights the leader by serving as a character foil.
The heart is responsible for keeping internal conflicts and arguments to a minimum.
The tank is kind of the powerhouse of the team. They are the one able to apply the most straight-forward might for the team’s benefit.
The smart one is the idea guy who comes up with tactical plans for the leader to execute.
So, this brings up a rather interesting question: Where do the club members fit on this model? Each Member’s Role I think the easiest one to pinpoint is Sayori. She definitely serves as the heart, but it’s arguable that she also serves as the smart one. Sayori’s the only one who actually takes the time to organize things with Monika, and it’s implied quite often that Sayori is more cunning than she appears. Monika’s the leader. She is club president, after all, and she’s damn good at it! Since she’s the main character in my mod, it also fits the trope quite well to have the protagonist be the leader. Like Sayori, Monika could very well be the smart one. I’d definitely consider Monika to be the most generally intelligent of the group, and she puts a lot of time into planning out what the club will do next. Natsuki is absolutely the lancer. I think my mod especially will put more emphasis on the differences between Monika and Natsuki. You may remember that I’m planning on putting slightly more emphasis on the dorky, un-hip aspect of Monika’s character, so it makes sense to also emphasize the assertive badass aspect of Natsuki’s character. Natsuki is probably the only club member who I can picture casually swearing, while it’s a running joke in my mod that Monika is comically averse to swearing. There’s a lot of ideas bouncing around inside of my head for scenes that I’ll be able to write in the future acts. I’d say that about 80% of these scenes involve Natsuki and Monika playing off of each other. Since Natsuki isn’t even old enough to go to high school in act one of my mod, I’m going to have to wait quite a while to implement these scenes, but boy am I excited for them! I guess Natsuki could also fit the tank trope, but I really don’t think any of the club members fit it very well. To be honest, I don’t think a literature club really needs a “big guy.” Although, if push comes to shove, Natsuki is definitely the most likely to punch someone if that’s what the club needs. As I’m sure you’ve been able to tell, Natsuki is definitely my favorite "eligible" club member. Much like Monika’s dorkiness, I feel like Natsuki’s badassery is underexplored, and I’m so excited to write for her! And then there’s Yuri… Where the hell do I start with her? Is she a leader? Definitely not. Is she the heart? Not really. If anything, she and Natsuki make the heart’s job harder by getting into arguments all the time. Is she the tank? I mean, she’s quite tall, but I wouldn’t describe her as a powerhouse. Sure, she’s obviously the most intellectual member when it comes to literature, but does she really use her smarts to help out the club? In the original game, I suppose that she acts as Natsuki’s lancer, so that would make her a lancer’s lancer. However, I think that, if I play my cards right, I could make her a lancer to Natuski and Monika. As I said in my first ever post announcing this mod, a major philosophical conflict of this game is Should you learn to accept your current circumstances, or should you always be on the lookout to improve your life? When you give your characters opposing views on core philosophical conflicts in the story, it creates drama and conflict. So while Monika and Yuri get along much better than Yuri and Natsuki (or even Natsuki and Monika, for that matter), they still act as foils to each other because they have such different beliefs. Monika believes that life is about constant improvement and searching for knowledge. Yuri, however, believes that it’s better to simply enjoy what you enjoy and get through life one day at a time. To Yuri, Monika’s belief is the key to unhappiness and discontent. To Monika, Yuri’s belief is depressing and gets nothing accomplished. Yuri wants the club to stay the same size and be a nice, cozy place where she can simply enjoy her books. Monika wants the club to grow and be a place to share a love of literature. Yuri believes that she’s not suited for social interactions, so she keeps them to a minimal. Monika believes that she’s not suited for social interactions, so she needs to work hard to change that. Who’s right? I dunno! It wouldn’t be an interesting story if the main philosophical conflict was so cut and dry, would it? At this exact moment, I’m more of a believer that it’s better to try and change your situation than to try and accept whatever’s happening to you. But then again, haven’t there been entire religions and philosophies built around the idea of accepting what life has to offer? Isn’t ambition and greed the root of all evil? Isn’t the drive for more supposed to never be enough? Perhaps this shouldn’t be treated as such a binary choice. Perhaps a merging of the two ideas is key to happiness. Is it not possible to be happy with your situation while also acknowledging that you could make it better? Can we strive for this compromise, or is it only possible to choose one of these two sides? My philosophical essay aside, I believe that such a contrast in beliefs will help Yuri play an interesting role in the story. Doing Yuri Justice. To be entirely honest, I always found Yuri a little bit...boring. Something that always bothered me was that Yuri’s great at talking about how unconventional her interests are, but all she ever does is allude to her interesting thoughts without actually expressing them! The only mod that really fixed this problem for me was Blue Skies, where Yuri actually says a lot of super interesting things. A lot of the time, talking to Yuri would leave me thinking “okay, Yuri, I get it, you have bad social skills, could you use your smarts to actually discuss something interesting?” The only thing is, people love Yuri. Now, I could assume that everybody’s an idiot except for me and preach down their throats that Monika is the one true best girl, or I could try to figure out why people like her so much. I think I’ll go with option one, so listen up you heretics. Nah, just joshin’ ya. I can totally see where people are coming from. While I personally have more superficial details in common with Monika (brown hair, green eyes, name starts with an M and has an “ick” sound, likes piano, likes coffee, believes in self improvement, doesn’t love rap but still appreciates it, loves reading, responsible for the deaths of several teenage girls…), I think I can relate to Yuri’s problems more than any other girl. Social anxiety is a serious problem that even I struggle with, so seeing Yuri deal with her problems can be quite cathartic. I think that Yuri is probably the easiest one to love (not that people who like her are lazy!) Yuri just wasn’t designed for group scenes, she’s designed for one on one conversations. So when I get to act 2 (the act where Monika actually gets around to founding the literature club) I’ll need to be very careful to give Yuri some time in the spotlight. Summarizing the Group Dynamic
Monika is the leader and idea person.
Sayori is the heart and idea person.
Natsuki is a lancer to Monika and Yuri, while also somewhat filling out the tank role with her assertiveness.
Yuri is a lancer to Monika and Natsuki.
Just like last week, I encourage anybody passionate about Yuri, Sayori, or Natsuki to offer their opinions on why they love them so much so that I can do them justice. Have a good week! Last Week's Post Next Week's Post
Hey, I just want to talk to some people who will try to understand me. I feel alone. I'm so grateful that this subreddit exists and that it's still standing after everything that has gone down. I had actually unsubscribed from the Gender Critical subreddit prior to it having been banned (part of a long trajectory of mine). But when it was banned I felt like it re-radicalized me. I'm still upset about it, and I feel I'm being drawn down into a spiral of madness. When I was identifying as non binary and thinking all of the time about how surgeries and self-identification adjustments could be solutions to the pain and suffering I've experienced in life as a woman who has not fit very well into a social role, it also became a spiral of madness. The thing that "peaked" me was basically the idea that sex could be a spectrum. I tried really hard to understand that, but it never made sense to me and that became the seed that grew into my more "gender critical" attitude. One thing I'm feeling is this pull of tribalism. The transgender community I was involved with definitely had a cult-like dogma. When I came away from that and started to try to understand and engage with the "other side," I was very careful not to fall into the same traps of tribal identity. But I don't think I have been entirely successful in that aim. I guess it's human nature to want to belong to a tribe. I don't know whether Reddit will continue to be a place where these kinds of discussions can take place. I'm not holding my breath. But since it's an option for me right now, I just came here to I guess try to seek some neutral ground where we can all just exist as people. People get so wound up so tight about Gender stuff. it's a total Trigger issue for so many people, myself included. I think all of the Screen Time and seeing people as 2 Dimensional is not helping out my mental health at all. I created /perself sort of as a joke but sort of also sincerely. Because I liked the discussions that used to happen here on Reddit in subreddits that have since been banned. I guess it's my way of trying to keep the conversation going. Can anybody else relate?
This is the Quality Contributions Roundup. It showcases interesting and well-written comments and posts from the period covered – in this case the last two weeks. If you want to get an idea of what this community is about or how we want you to participate, look no further (except the rules maybe. Those might be important too). As a reminder, you can nominate Quality Contributions by hitting the report button and selecting the "Actually A Quality Contribution!" option from the "It breaks TheMotte's rules, or is of interest to the mods" menu. Additionally, links to all of the roundups can be found in the wiki of /theThread which can be found here. For a list of other great community content, see here. Here we go:
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning March 9th, 2020
Good Saturday morning to all of you here on wallstreetbets. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week and month ahead. Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning March 9th, 2020.
Wall Street braces for more market volatility as wild swings become the ‘new normal’ amid coronavirus - (Source)
The S&P 500 has never behaved like this, but Wall Street strategists say get used to it. Investors just witnessed the equity benchmark swinging up or down 2% for four days straight in the face of the coronavirus panic. In the index’s history dating back to 1927, this is the first time the S&P 500 had a week of alternating gains and losses of more than 2% from Monday through Thursday, according to Bespoke Investment Group. Daily swings like this over a two-week period were only seen at the peak of the financial crisis and in 2011 when U.S. sovereign debt got its first-ever downgrade, the firm said. “The message to all investors is that they should expect this volatility to continue. This should be considered the new normal going forward,” said Mike Loewengart, managing director of investment strategy at E-Trade. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped north of 1,000 points twice in the past week, only to erase the quadruple-digit gains in the subsequent sessions. The coronavirus outbreak kept investors on edge as global cases of the infections surpassed 100,000. It’s also spreading rapidly in the U.S. California has declared a state of emergency, while the number of cases in New York reached 33. “Uncertainty breeds greater market volatility,” Keith Lerner, SunTrust’s chief market strategist, said in a note. “Much is still unknown about how severe and widespread the coronavirus will become. From a market perspective, what we are seeing is uncomfortable but somewhat typical after shock periods.”
More stimulus?
So far, the actions from global central banks and governments in response to the outbreak haven’t triggered a sustainable rebound. The Federal Reserve’s first emergency rate cut since the financial crisis did little to calm investor anxiety. President Donald Trump on Friday signed a sweeping spending bill with an$8.3 billion packageto aid prevention efforts to produce a vaccine for the deadly disease, but stocks extended their heavy rout that day. “The market is recognizing the global authorities are responding to this,” said Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report. “If the market begins to worry they are not doing that sufficiently, then I think we are going to go down ugly. It is helping stocks hold up.” Essaye said any further stimulus from China and a decent-sized fiscal package from Germany would be positive to the market, but he doesn’t expect the moves to create a huge rebound. The fed funds future market is now pricing in the possibility of the U.S. central bank cutting by 75 basis points at its March 17-18 meeting.
Where is the bottom?
Many on Wall Street expect the market to fall further before recovering as the health crisis unfolds. Binky Chadha, Deutsche Bank’s chief equity strategist, sees a bottom for the S&P 500 in the second quarter after stocks falling as much as 20% from their recent peak. “The magnitude of the selloff in the S&P 500 so far has further to go; and in terms of duration, just two weeks in, it is much too early to declare this episode as being done,” Chadha said in a note. “We do view the impacts on macro and earnings growth as being relatively short-lived and the market eventually looking through them.” Deutsche Bank maintained its year-end target of 3,250 for the S&P 500, which would represent a 10% gain from here and a flat return for 2020. Strategists are also urging patience during this heightened volatility, cautioning against panic selling. “It is during times like these that investors need to maintain a longer-term perspective and stick to their investment process rather than making knee-jerk, binary decisions,” Brian Belski, chief investment strategist at BMO Capital Markets, said in a note.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
If you're like us, you've heard a lot of people reference the recent equity declines as a sign that the market is pricing in some sort of Armageddon in the US economy. While comments like that make for great soundbites, a little perspective is in order. Since the S&P 500's high on February 19th, the S&P 500 is down 12.8%. In the chart below, we show the S&P 500's annual maximum drawdown by year going back to 1928. In the entire history of the index, the median maximum drawdown from a YTD high is 13.05%. In other words, this year's decline is actually less than normal. Perhaps due to the fact that we have only seen one larger-than-average drawdown in the last eight years is why this one feels so bad. The fact that the current decline has only been inline with the historical norm raises a number of questions. For example, if the market has already priced in the worst-case scenario, going out and adding some equity exposure would be a no brainer. However, if we're only in the midst of a 'normal' drawdown in the equity market as the coronavirus outbreak threatens to put the economy into a recession, one could argue that things for the stock market could get worse before they get better, especially when we know that the market can be prone to over-reaction in both directions. The fact is that nobody knows right now how this entire outbreak will play out. If it really is a black swan, the market definitely has further to fall and now would present a great opportunity to sell more equities. However, if it proves to be temporary and after a quarter or two resolves itself and the economy gets back on the path it was on at the start of the year, then the magnitude of the current decline is probably appropriate. As they say, that's what makes a market!
Take a good luck at today's moves in long-term US Treasury yields, because chances are you won't see moves of this magnitude again soon. Let's start with the yield on the 30-year US Treasury. Today's decline of 29 basis points in the yield will go down as the largest one-day decline in the yield on the 30-year since 2009. For some perspective, there have only been 25 other days since 1977 where the yield saw a larger one day decline.
That doesn't even tell the whole story, though. As shown in the chart below, every other time the yield saw a sharper one-day decline, the actual yield of the 30-year was much higher, and in most other cases it was much, much higher.
To show this another way, the percentage change in the yield on the 30-year has never been seen before, and it's not even close. Now, before the chart crime police come calling, we realize showing a percentage change of a percentage is not the most accurate representation, but we wanted to show this for illustrative purposes only.
Finally, with long-term interest rates plummetting we wanted to provide an update on the performance of the Austrian 100-year bond. That's now back at record highs, begging the question, why is the US not flooding the market with long-term debt?
Today's decline is pretty much a continuation of what has been a one-way trade for the commodity ever since the US drone strike on Iranian general Soleimani. The last time prices were this low was around Christmas 2018.
With today's decline, crude oil is now off to its worst start to a year in a generation falling 32%. Since 1984, the only other year that was worse was 1986 when the year started out with a decline of 50% through March 6th. If you're looking for a bright spot, in 1986, prices rose 36% over the remainder of the year. The only other year where crude oil kicked off the year with a 30% decline was in 1991 after the first Iraq war. Over the remainder of that year, prices rose a more modest 5%.
Despite strong market gains on Wednesday, March 4, 2020, the on-the-run 10-year Treasury yield ended the day below 1% for the first time ever and has posted additional declines in real time, sitting at 0.92% intraday as this blog is being written. “The decline in yields has been remarkable,” said LPL Research Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “The 10-year Treasury yield has dipped below 1%, and today’s declines are likely to make the recent run lower the largest decline of the cycle.” As shown in LPL Research’s chart of the day, the current decline in the 10-year Treasury yield without a meaningful reversal (defined as at least 0.75%) is approaching the decline seen in 2011 and 2012 and would need about another two months to be the longest decline in length of time. At the same time, no prior decline has lasted forever and a pattern of declines and increases has been normal.
What are some things that can push the 10-year Treasury yield lower?
A shrinking but still sizable yield advantage over other developed market sovereign debt
Added stock volatility if downside risks to economic growth from the coronavirus increase
A larger potential premium over shorter-term yields if the Federal Reserve aggressively cuts interest rates
What are some things that can push the 10-year Treasury yield higher?
A second half economic rebound acting a catalyst for a Treasury sell-off
As yields move lower, investors may increasingly seek more attractive sources of income
Any dollar weakness could lead to some selling by international investors
Longer maturity Treasuries are looking like an increasingly crowded trade, potentially adding energy to any sell-off
On balance, our view remains that the prospect of an economic rebound over the second half points to the potential for interest rates moving higher. At the same time, we still see some advantage in the potential diversification benefits of intermediate maturity high-quality bonds, especially during periods of market stress. We continue to recommend that suitable investors consider keeping a bond portfolio’s sensitivity to changes in interest rates below that of the benchmark Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index by emphasizing short to intermediate maturity bonds, but do not believe it’s time to pile into very short maturities despite the 10-year Treasury yield sitting at historically low levels.
U.S. Jobs Growth Marches On
While stock markets continue to be extremely volatile as they come to terms with how the coronavirus may affect global growth, the U.S. job market has remained remarkably robust. Continued U.S. jobs data resilience in the face of headwinds from the coronavirus outbreak may be a key factor in prolonging the expansion, given how important the strength of the U.S. consumer has been late into this expansion. The U.S. Department of Labor today reported that U.S. nonfarm payroll data had a strong showing of 273,000 jobs added in February, topping the expectation of every Bloomberg-surveyed economist, with an additional upward revision of 85,000 additional jobs for December 2019 and January 2020. This has brought the current unemployment rate back to its 50-year low of 3.5%. So far, it appears it’s too soon for any effects of the coronavirus to have been felt in the jobs numbers. (Note: The survey takes place in the middle of each month.) On Wednesday, ADP released its private payroll data (excluding government jobs), which increased by 183,000 in February, also handily beating market expectations. Most of these jobs were added in the service sector, with 44,000 added in the leisure and hospitality sector, and another 31,000 in trade/transportation/utilities. Both of these areas could be at risk of potential cutbacks if consumers start to avoid eating out or other leisure pursuits due to coronavirus fears. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, payrolls remain strong, and any effects of the virus outbreaks most likely would be felt in coming months.
“February’s jobs report shows the 113th straight month that the U.S. jobs market has grown,” said LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “That’s an incredible run and highlights how the U.S. consumer has become key to extending the expansion, especially given setbacks to global growth from the coronavirus outbreak.” While there is bound to be some drag on future jobs data from the coronavirus-related slowdown, we would anticipate that the effects of this may be transitory. We believe economic fundamentals continue to suggest the possibility of a second-half-of-the–year economic rebound.
Down January & Down February: S&P 500 Posts Full-Year Gain Just 43.75% of Time
The combination of a down January and a down February has come about 17 times, including this year, going back to 1950. Rest of the year and full-year performance has taken a rather sizable hit following the previous 16 occurrences. March through December S&P 500 average performance drops to 2.32% compared to 7.69% in all years. Full-year performance is even worse with S&P 500 average turning to a loss of 4.91% compared to an average gain of 9.14% in all years. All hope for 2020 is not lost as seven of the 16 past down January and down February years did go on to log gains over the last 10 months and full year while six enjoyed double-digit gains from March to December.
Today’s big rally was an encouraging sign that the markets are becoming more comfortable with the public health, monetary and political handling of the situation. But the history of these “emergency” or “surprise” rate cuts by the Fed between meetings suggest some caution remains in order. The table here shows that these surprise cuts between meetings have really only “worked” once in the past 20+ years. In 1998 when the Fed and the plunge protection team acted swiftly and in a coordinated manner to stave off the fallout from the financial crisis caused by the collapse of the Russian ruble and the highly leveraged Long Term Capital Management hedge fund markets responded well. This was not the case during the extended bear markets of 2001-2002 and 2007-2009. Bottom line: if this is a short-term impact like the 1998 financial crisis the market should recover sooner rather than later. But if the economic impact of coronavirus virus is prolonged, the market is more likely to languish.
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.
Adobe Inc. $336.77
Adobe Inc. (ADBE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, March 12, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.23 per share on revenue of $3.04 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.29 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 81% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of approximately $2.23 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 29.65% with revenue increasing by 16.88%. Short interest has decreased by 38.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 7.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 10.9% above its 200 day moving average of $303.70. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, February 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,109 contracts of the $400.00 call expiring on Friday, March 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 9.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.1% move in recent quarters.
DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. (DKS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Tuesday, March 10, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.23 per share on revenue of $2.56 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.28 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 57% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 14.95% with revenue increasing by 2.73%. Short interest has decreased by 29.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 20.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 12.0% below its 200 day moving average of $39.75. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 there was some notable buying of 848 contracts of the $39.00 put expiring on Friday, March 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 14.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.3% move in recent quarters.
Broadcom Limited (AVGO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Thursday, March 12, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $5.34 per share on revenue of $5.93 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $5.45 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 83% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 5.65% with revenue increasing by 2.44%. Short interest has decreased by 15.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 15.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.7% below its 200 day moving average of $291.95. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,197 contracts of the $260.00 put expiring on Friday, April 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 11.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.9% move in recent quarters.
Thor Industries, Inc. (THO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Monday, March 9, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.76 per share on revenue of $1.79 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.84 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 16.92% with revenue increasing by 38.70%. Short interest has decreased by 12.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 5.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 12.0% above its 200 day moving average of $62.53. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 6.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.1% move in recent quarters.
ULTA Beauty (ULTA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, March 12, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $3.71 per share on revenue of $2.29 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $3.75 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 73% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 2.77% with revenue increasing by 7.78%. Short interest has increased by 8.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 0.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.5% below its 200 day moving average of $283.43. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 15.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 11.7% move in recent quarters.
Slack Technologies, Inc. (WORK) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Thursday, March 12, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.06 per share on revenue of $173.06 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.04) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for a loss of $0.07 to $0.06 per share on revenue of $172.00 million to $174.00 million. Short interest has increased by 1.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 19.0% from its open following the earnings release. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 4.3% move on earnings in recent quarters.
Dollar General Corporation (DG) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:55 AM ET on Thursday, March 12, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.02 per share on revenue of $7.15 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.05 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 76% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 9.78% with revenue increasing by 7.52%. Short interest has increased by 16.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 1.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.7% above its 200 day moving average of $149.88. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, February 28, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,013 contracts of the $182.50 call expiring on Friday, March 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 9.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.7% move in recent quarters.
Stitch Fix, Inc. (SFIX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Monday, March 9, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.06 per share on revenue of $452.96 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.09 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 83% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $447.00 million to $455.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 50.00% with revenue increasing by 22.33%. Short interest has decreased by 4.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 16.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.1% below its 200 day moving average of $24.01. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, February 19, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,026 contracts of the $35.00 call expiring on Friday, June 19, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 28.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 15.2% move in recent quarters.
Sogou Inc. (SOGO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 AM ET on Monday, March 9, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.09 per share on revenue of $303.08 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.10 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 58% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $290.00 million to $310.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 28.57% with revenue increasing by 1.78%. Short interest has increased by 6.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 27.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 15.7% below its 200 day moving average of $4.57. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 3.8% move on earnings in recent quarters.
DocuSign (DOCU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, March 12, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.05 per share on revenue of $267.44 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.08 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 81% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $263.00 million to $267.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 600.00% with revenue increasing by 33.90%. Short interest has decreased by 37.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 12.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 31.9% above its 200 day moving average of $63.71. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, March 4, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,698 contracts of the $87.50 call expiring on Friday, March 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.0% move in recent quarters.
Unusually high CPU and GPU usage on YouTube (Firefox Nightly)
TLDR: So the fix for this, in my instance, was two parts. First was to install new drivers onto my computer. Second, and probably something I should have noticed myself, is that I should have set YouTube not to stream at 4K. Not terribly shocking to need 4x the GPU when processing 4x the data for an image compared to 720p Hi all, So, a few days ago I noticed that Firefox was using way more CPU and GPU resources on YouTube especially. On the same video, Vivaldi's GPU usage would hit about 8% then hover at 2.5% or so. Firefox would go to about 20%, and hover at about 5-10%. I wasn't entirely sure as to why this is happening. I tried turning off Hardware Acceleration, which didn't seem to do anything. I used this video from Engineering Explained where Firefox's GPU usage was always over 20% in the first minute, while Vivaldi peaked at 15% for a moment, then went back down to 2.5%. Hardware Specs: Intel i7-8705G 16GB RAM 512GB NVMe SSD Intel HD 630 (This is the GPU that gets used by Firefox) Radeon RX Vega M GL Let me know if there's anything else I can provide! Edit: Here is the about:support from my browser. I should note that I did try to remedy the issue by turning all add ons off, but that didn't do anything either.
Application Basics
Name: Firefox Version: 78.0a1 Build ID: 20200526213752 Distribution ID: Update Channel: nightly User Agent: Mozilla/5.0 (Windows NT 10.0; Win64; x64; rv:78.0) Gecko/20100101 Firefox/78.0 OS: Windows_NT 10.0 Launcher Process: Enabled Multiprocess Windows: 1/1 Enabled by default Remote Processes: 18 Enterprise Policies: Inactive Google Location Service Key: Found Google Safebrowsing Key: Found Mozilla Location Service Key: Found Safe Mode: false
NSPR Expected minimum version: 4.25 Version in use: 4.25 NSS Expected minimum version: 3.53 Beta Version in use: 3.53 Beta NSSSMIME Expected minimum version: 3.53 Beta Version in use: 3.53 Beta NSSSSL Expected minimum version: 3.53 Beta Version in use: 3.53 Beta NSSUTIL Expected minimum version: 3.53 Beta Version in use: 3.53 Beta
Sandbox
Content Process Sandbox Level: 6 Effective Content Process Sandbox Level: 6
Startup Cache
Disk Cache Path: C:\Users\Daniel Chuchra\AppData\Local\Mozilla\Firefox\Profiles\dmz3ad06.default\startupCache\startupCache.8.little Ignore Disk Cache: false Found Disk Cache on Init: true Wrote to Disk Cache: true
Internationalization & Localization
Application Settings Requested Locales: ["en-US"] Available Locales: ["en-US"] App Locales: ["en-US"] Regional Preferences: ["en-US"] Default Locale: "en-US" Operating System System Locales: ["en-US"] Regional Preferences: ["en-US"]
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